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Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 is a weekly community post with meetup notices and updates on several AI-related projects. It invites AI and grantmaking specialists to complete a survey and highlights a new real-money AI prediction market and a browser-based community-notes project.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, its weekly forum post, with updates on local meetups, a survey about AI-safety grantmaking, and two projects involving prediction markets and community-written notes. The post also points readers to a Boston-area election guide and a planned Bay Area meetup.
The post asks people with experience in AI and grantmaking to complete a survey assigning utility weights to about 80 AI-safety accomplishments. The author says the responses are part of ongoing work to model, and potentially automate some parts of, AI grantmaking. A second survey asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first, which the post says could help distinguish differences in worldview from random variation in how people assign weights.
The thread lists meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia, directing readers to the post for specifics. It also says the Boston ACX meetup group has completed a Greater Boston general-election voting guide. The author says they may publish more guides and are still determining whether a similar effort can be organized for the Bay Area.
The post announces that Stephen Grugett, described as a grantee and Manifold Markets co-founder, has launched MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI. According to the post, it offers futures tied to AI-company stocks, markets on company revenues and targets related to the Epoch Capabilities Index. It also recommends Common Notes, a project from Goodheart Labs that aims to extend a Community Notes-style system across websites using AI-generated notes, user contributions and voting, with a browser extension.
Community Projects Meet AI Evaluation
The thread brings practical community notices together with projects that touch on AI funding and accountability. The survey seeks input from people familiar with grantmaking and AI safety, rather than presenting a completed model or a settled method. Its responses may inform the author’s work, but the post does not report results or say how any funding decisions would change.
MNX and Common Notes also reflect different attempts to apply market signals and collaborative annotation to AI-related questions. A prediction market can show what participants are willing to wager about future outcomes, while a notes system relies on contributions and assessments from users and, in this case, AI. Neither announcement establishes that the projects’ outputs are accurate or representative; their reach and performance are not reported in the thread.
For readers in the ACX community, the immediate value is logistical as well as informational: the post shares meetup and election-guide updates, directs qualified readers to a research survey and provides links to new tools. The Bay Area notice is time-sensitive, while the survey and project announcements offer ways for readers to participate or learn more.
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A Weekly ACX Community Forum
Open Thread 456 is presented as Astral Codex Ten’s weekly visible open thread, inviting readers to post about any subject or ask questions. The post also points to the blog’s unofficial subreddit, Discord, bulletin board and in-person meetups. It notes that most of the site’s content is free, while some is subscriber-only.
The election-guide notice is tied to the general election and includes a deadline reminder specifically for San Francisco mail-in ballot registration: the post says the deadline is the end of the day on Monday. It identifies Scott Wiener for Congress as the group’s main San Francisco endorsement. The post does not provide the guide’s detailed recommendations in the supplied material.
The thread also refers to earlier work on modeling AI grantmaking, but does not describe those prior efforts in detail. Its new survey is framed as a request for data, not as a finding. Likewise, the product descriptions of MNX and Common Notes come from the thread’s announcements; no independent evaluation or usage data is included.
“I would once again like people who are well-versed in the AI/grantmaking worlds to take a survey”
— Astral Codex Ten author, in Open Thread 456
Survey Results and Project Reach
The post does not report the survey’s results, how responses will be analyzed, or whether the work will influence actual grant allocations. It also does not say how many specialists are expected to respond or when the author may publish findings.
Details of MNX’s operation, participation, safeguards and market activity are not provided. The post says the market offers ways to trade on AI-company stocks and revenues, but does not give further terms or explain how the listed contracts are structured. Its comparison of market prices is a snapshot: the author says Polymarket and MNX still priced Anthropic around $2 trillion despite discussion of a drop from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. The post does not specify the valuation measure, the timing or source of the lower figure, or the exact market contracts behind the comparison.
For Common Notes, the thread describes a mix of AI-written notes, user submissions and user voting, but gives no information about moderation rules, launch scale or how the system will handle disagreement. The meetup changes are also not detailed in the supplied text beyond the city list. Readers should consult the original post for the specific local arrangements and linked project information.
Upcoming Meetup and Survey
The post schedules a Bay Area ACX meetup for Saturday, Oct. 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. in San Francisco. The author says a separate post may follow. The thread also reminds San Francisco readers that mail-in ballot registration is due by the end of the day Monday, as stated in the post; readers should check current election-office information for any deadline details.
People with relevant AI and grantmaking experience can take the utility-weight survey and, if they have time, the alternate survey asking them to predict the author’s answers. The author says they may publish additional election guides in the coming week, while the Bay Area guide effort remains undecided. The thread gives no timetable for survey findings, MNX updates or Common Notes developments.
Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is Astral Codex Ten’s weekly open thread, a forum post inviting readers to discuss a range of topics and sharing community announcements.
What does the AI grantmaking survey ask?
It asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to assign utility weights to about 80 AI-safety accomplishments. An alternate version asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the original survey.
What is MNX?
According to the thread, MNX is a real-money prediction market focused on AI, with futures related to AI-company stocks, markets on company revenues and Epoch Capabilities Index targets.
When and where is the Bay Area meetup?
The post lists it for Saturday, Oct. 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. in San Francisco.
What is Common Notes?
Goodheart Labs describes it as a system intended to bring Community Notes-style annotations to websites broadly, combining AI-written notes, user contributions and voting through a browser extension.
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